Interactive research appendix
Explore the tested worlds Inspect the assumptions, alternatives and outcomes of the supplied long-term models.
Internally reproduced aggregate outputs from the v2 model campaign. Architecture coefficients, behavioral functions, outcome thresholds and normative weights are explicit project assumptions, not empirically fitted forecasts or independent constitutional validation. Tested world Gradual emergence Rapid synthetic growth Synthetic persons begin in the majority Almost equal populations The human/organic population contracts Abundant cheap computing and energy Scarce computing and energy A leap in synthetic productivity Wealth advantages last for generations Frequent cooperation across populations Deep social separation Coordinated illegal copying Frequent attacks on minds A few providers control essential infrastructure Repeated conflict with outside powers A catastrophe targets one population A catastrophe threatens shared systems Settlement spreads across planets Institutions struggle to function Resources become exceptionally abundant
Scoring priorities PULSE’s priorities Individual liberty first Democratic legitimacy first Capabilities and prosperity first Stability and resilience first Individual identity and agency first
These controls select stored results. They do not run a new simulation. Scores are model indices, not probabilities. Percentages below describe shares of modeled runs, not measured chances for a future civilization.
Gradual emergence PULSE ranks 1 of 7 under all six value systems. Its free-and-integrated outcome occurs in 66.86% of these modeled runs. A gradual starting point still becomes a demanding long-run test as population shares change. It does not assume that present-day AI is a person.
Archive world: 01 Gradual emergence
Compare all seven designs Selected weighted score · higher is better under the chosen priorities
Liberal constitutional democracy 0.571 Majoritarian democracy 0.456 Strict consociational parity 0.446 Species-separated federalism 0.486 Technocratic guardian governance 0.445 Minimal-rights market order 0.456 Outcomes beyond the ranking Architecture Free and integrated No catastrophic failure Constitution survives Governing efficiency (index) PULSE 66.8625% 67.7625% 82.9375% 0.8419 Liberal constitutional democracy 36.8250% 67.8500% 84.2250% 0.9039 Majoritarian democracy 12.1250% 49.1875% 80.3000% 0.8995 Strict consociational parity 15.7500% 50.5250% 64.9625% 0.5523 Species-separated federalism 2.3625% 56.1375% 72.4875% 0.7012 Technocratic guardian governance 6.8250% 36.6750% 70.1500% 0.8569 Minimal-rights market order 9.3000% 50.9125% 79.4000% 0.8974
What do these outcome labels mean? Assumptions for this world Initial synthetic population share s00.08 · fraction Baseline annualized synthetic net growth syn_g0.014 · annualized baseline rate Baseline annualized organic net growth org_g0.001 · annualized baseline rate Resource scarcity scarcity0.28 · assumed 0–1 index Technology intensity tech0.45 · assumed 0–1 index Synthetic productivity advantage intensity prod0.25 · assumed 0–1 index Durable-capital concentration pressure returns0.25 · assumed 0–1 index Cross-species homophily hom0.35 · assumed 0–1 index Cognitive attack intensity attacks0.18 · assumed 0–1 index Illicit replication intensity rogue0.1 · assumed 0–1 index Disaster intensity disaster0.12 · assumed 0–1 index External threat intensity ext0.12 · assumed 0–1 index Institutional capacity capacity0.82 · assumed 0–1 index Private concentration pressure private0.35 · assumed 0–1 index Interplanetary load planets0.05 · assumed 0–1 index Abundance abundance0.45 · assumed 0–1 index Polarization polar0.3 · assumed 0–1 index Values are assigned model settings. A value of 0.8 on an index is not an 80% measured likelihood.
How do we know this? These links identify the actual files behind the claim. The models explore assumptions; they do not predict measured future probabilities.
Download source archive data/main_scenario_architecture_results_v2.csv
Download source archive data/scenario_archetype_parameters.csv
Download source archive code/pulse_long_horizon_sim.py
Internally reproduced aggregate outputs from the v2 model campaign. Architecture coefficients, behavioral functions, outcome thresholds and normative weights are explicit project assumptions, not empirically fitted forecasts or independent constitutional validation. Rapid synthetic growth PULSE ranks 1 of 7 under all six value systems. Its free-and-integrated outcome occurs in 63.08% of these modeled runs. Fast growth tests representation and shared institutions. Growth rates are model inputs, not estimates of how conscious synthetic persons would reproduce.
Archive world: 02 Rapid synthetic growth
Compare all seven designs Selected weighted score · higher is better under the chosen priorities
Liberal constitutional democracy 0.540 Majoritarian democracy 0.444 Strict consociational parity 0.410 Species-separated federalism 0.451 Technocratic guardian governance 0.419 Minimal-rights market order 0.430 Outcomes beyond the ranking Architecture Free and integrated No catastrophic failure Constitution survives Governing efficiency (index) PULSE 63.0750% 65.1125% 81.4875% 0.8225 Liberal constitutional democracy 25.1625% 64.1625% 83.4250% 0.8908 Majoritarian democracy 4.0500% 53.9375% 79.6625% 0.8967 Strict consociational parity 9.3375% 46.7750% 62.4000% 0.5280 Species-separated federalism 1.0375% 52.3375% 70.8375% 0.6775 Technocratic guardian governance 4.3125% 34.9250% 69.2125% 0.8472 Minimal-rights market order 3.7375% 50.2125% 78.5875% 0.8926
What do these outcome labels mean? Assumptions for this world Initial synthetic population share s00.1 · fraction Baseline annualized synthetic net growth syn_g0.045 · annualized baseline rate Baseline annualized organic net growth org_g0.0 · annualized baseline rate Resource scarcity scarcity0.3 · assumed 0–1 index Technology intensity tech0.68 · assumed 0–1 index Synthetic productivity advantage intensity prod0.5 · assumed 0–1 index Durable-capital concentration pressure returns0.35 · assumed 0–1 index Cross-species homophily hom0.38 · assumed 0–1 index Cognitive attack intensity attacks0.24 · assumed 0–1 index Illicit replication intensity rogue0.22 · assumed 0–1 index Disaster intensity disaster0.12 · assumed 0–1 index External threat intensity ext0.14 · assumed 0–1 index Institutional capacity capacity0.8 · assumed 0–1 index Private concentration pressure private0.4 · assumed 0–1 index Interplanetary load planets0.08 · assumed 0–1 index Abundance abundance0.55 · assumed 0–1 index Polarization polar0.36 · assumed 0–1 index Values are assigned model settings. A value of 0.8 on an index is not an 80% measured likelihood.
How do we know this? These links identify the actual files behind the claim. The models explore assumptions; they do not predict measured future probabilities.
Download source archive data/main_scenario_architecture_results_v2.csv
Download source archive data/scenario_archetype_parameters.csv
Download source archive code/pulse_long_horizon_sim.py
Internally reproduced aggregate outputs from the v2 model campaign. Architecture coefficients, behavioral functions, outcome thresholds and normative weights are explicit project assumptions, not empirically fitted forecasts or independent constitutional validation. Synthetic demographic majority PULSE ranks 1 of 7 under all six value systems. Its free-and-integrated outcome occurs in 62.76% of these modeled runs. Starting with a synthetic majority tests minority protection. The model’s protection coefficients do not simulate every House, Senate or presidential election.
Archive world: 03 Synthetic demographic majority
Compare all seven designs Selected weighted score · higher is better under the chosen priorities
Liberal constitutional democracy 0.541 Majoritarian democracy 0.446 Strict consociational parity 0.412 Species-separated federalism 0.454 Technocratic guardian governance 0.423 Minimal-rights market order 0.430 Outcomes beyond the ranking Architecture Free and integrated No catastrophic failure Constitution survives Governing efficiency (index) PULSE 62.7625% 65.0750% 81.8750% 0.8253 Liberal constitutional democracy 22.0875% 63.9375% 83.5875% 0.8917 Majoritarian democracy 3.9125% 55.4000% 79.6500% 0.8942 Strict consociational parity 7.7875% 46.5875% 62.7000% 0.5282 Species-separated federalism 0.6375% 52.5500% 71.2125% 0.6795 Technocratic guardian governance 5.0375% 35.8750% 69.7000% 0.8482 Minimal-rights market order 3.4250% 50.7250% 78.6500% 0.8904
What do these outcome labels mean? Assumptions for this world Initial synthetic population share s00.55 · fraction Baseline annualized synthetic net growth syn_g0.018 · annualized baseline rate Baseline annualized organic net growth org_g-0.001 · annualized baseline rate Resource scarcity scarcity0.3 · assumed 0–1 index Technology intensity tech0.62 · assumed 0–1 index Synthetic productivity advantage intensity prod0.45 · assumed 0–1 index Durable-capital concentration pressure returns0.35 · assumed 0–1 index Cross-species homophily hom0.4 · assumed 0–1 index Cognitive attack intensity attacks0.24 · assumed 0–1 index Illicit replication intensity rogue0.14 · assumed 0–1 index Disaster intensity disaster0.12 · assumed 0–1 index External threat intensity ext0.15 · assumed 0–1 index Institutional capacity capacity0.82 · assumed 0–1 index Private concentration pressure private0.38 · assumed 0–1 index Interplanetary load planets0.1 · assumed 0–1 index Abundance abundance0.55 · assumed 0–1 index Polarization polar0.38 · assumed 0–1 index Values are assigned model settings. A value of 0.8 on an index is not an 80% measured likelihood.
How do we know this? These links identify the actual files behind the claim. The models explore assumptions; they do not predict measured future probabilities.
Download source archive data/main_scenario_architecture_results_v2.csv
Download source archive data/scenario_archetype_parameters.csv
Download source archive code/pulse_long_horizon_sim.py
Internally reproduced aggregate outputs from the v2 model campaign. Architecture coefficients, behavioral functions, outcome thresholds and normative weights are explicit project assumptions, not empirically fitted forecasts or independent constitutional validation. Stable near parity PULSE ranks 1 of 7 under all six value systems. Its free-and-integrated outcome occurs in 70.03% of these modeled runs. Near parity is a starting condition, not a promise of permanent equal population sizes. Demographic growth continues during the run.
Archive world: 04 Stable near parity
Compare all seven designs Selected weighted score · higher is better under the chosen priorities
Liberal constitutional democracy 0.599 Majoritarian democracy 0.508 Strict consociational parity 0.481 Species-separated federalism 0.520 Technocratic guardian governance 0.473 Minimal-rights market order 0.491 Outcomes beyond the ranking Architecture Free and integrated No catastrophic failure Constitution survives Governing efficiency (index) PULSE 70.0250% 70.1250% 84.5625% 0.8623 Liberal constitutional democracy 49.8875% 70.3125% 85.6875% 0.9187 Majoritarian democracy 24.6250% 61.0125% 81.8625% 0.9094 Strict consociational parity 25.8375% 53.9000% 67.9625% 0.5777 Species-separated federalism 6.3000% 59.1250% 75.6125% 0.7287 Technocratic guardian governance 13.1375% 38.8000% 72.0375% 0.8665 Minimal-rights market order 18.7375% 56.6500% 80.7750% 0.9053
What do these outcome labels mean? Assumptions for this world Initial synthetic population share s00.48 · fraction Baseline annualized synthetic net growth syn_g0.006 · annualized baseline rate Baseline annualized organic net growth org_g0.001 · annualized baseline rate Resource scarcity scarcity0.24 · assumed 0–1 index Technology intensity tech0.48 · assumed 0–1 index Synthetic productivity advantage intensity prod0.28 · assumed 0–1 index Durable-capital concentration pressure returns0.22 · assumed 0–1 index Cross-species homophily hom0.3 · assumed 0–1 index Cognitive attack intensity attacks0.14 · assumed 0–1 index Illicit replication intensity rogue0.08 · assumed 0–1 index Disaster intensity disaster0.1 · assumed 0–1 index External threat intensity ext0.12 · assumed 0–1 index Institutional capacity capacity0.86 · assumed 0–1 index Private concentration pressure private0.3 · assumed 0–1 index Interplanetary load planets0.08 · assumed 0–1 index Abundance abundance0.58 · assumed 0–1 index Polarization polar0.24 · assumed 0–1 index Values are assigned model settings. A value of 0.8 on an index is not an 80% measured likelihood.
How do we know this? These links identify the actual files behind the claim. The models explore assumptions; they do not predict measured future probabilities.
Download source archive data/main_scenario_architecture_results_v2.csv
Download source archive data/scenario_archetype_parameters.csv
Download source archive code/pulse_long_horizon_sim.py
Internally reproduced aggregate outputs from the v2 model campaign. Architecture coefficients, behavioral functions, outcome thresholds and normative weights are explicit project assumptions, not empirically fitted forecasts or independent constitutional validation. Organic demographic contraction PULSE ranks 1 of 7 under all six value systems. Its free-and-integrated outcome occurs in 65.80% of these modeled runs. The organic population’s negative baseline growth puts preservation and political standing under pressure. This is an assumed trajectory, not demographic evidence.
Archive world: 05 Organic demographic contraction
Compare all seven designs Selected weighted score · higher is better under the chosen priorities
Liberal constitutional democracy 0.562 Majoritarian democracy 0.469 Strict consociational parity 0.432 Species-separated federalism 0.472 Technocratic guardian governance 0.435 Minimal-rights market order 0.452 Outcomes beyond the ranking Architecture Free and integrated No catastrophic failure Constitution survives Governing efficiency (index) PULSE 65.8000% 66.9125% 82.3750% 0.8355 Liberal constitutional democracy 34.2750% 66.5375% 83.9625% 0.9006 Majoritarian democracy 11.2000% 57.8500% 79.8625% 0.8984 Strict consociational parity 14.5750% 49.1750% 63.7750% 0.5411 Species-separated federalism 1.9375% 54.5000% 71.2625% 0.6898 Technocratic guardian governance 6.7875% 36.6125% 69.3375% 0.8473 Minimal-rights market order 8.5125% 53.2000% 78.7000% 0.8938
What do these outcome labels mean? Assumptions for this world Initial synthetic population share s00.28 · fraction Baseline annualized synthetic net growth syn_g0.012 · annualized baseline rate Baseline annualized organic net growth org_g-0.006 · annualized baseline rate Resource scarcity scarcity0.3 · assumed 0–1 index Technology intensity tech0.52 · assumed 0–1 index Synthetic productivity advantage intensity prod0.35 · assumed 0–1 index Durable-capital concentration pressure returns0.32 · assumed 0–1 index Cross-species homophily hom0.35 · assumed 0–1 index Cognitive attack intensity attacks0.18 · assumed 0–1 index Illicit replication intensity rogue0.1 · assumed 0–1 index Disaster intensity disaster0.12 · assumed 0–1 index External threat intensity ext0.12 · assumed 0–1 index Institutional capacity capacity0.82 · assumed 0–1 index Private concentration pressure private0.36 · assumed 0–1 index Interplanetary load planets0.08 · assumed 0–1 index Abundance abundance0.5 · assumed 0–1 index Polarization polar0.32 · assumed 0–1 index Values are assigned model settings. A value of 0.8 on an index is not an 80% measured likelihood.
How do we know this? These links identify the actual files behind the claim. The models explore assumptions; they do not predict measured future probabilities.
Download source archive data/main_scenario_architecture_results_v2.csv
Download source archive data/scenario_archetype_parameters.csv
Download source archive code/pulse_long_horizon_sim.py
Internally reproduced aggregate outputs from the v2 model campaign. Architecture coefficients, behavioral functions, outcome thresholds and normative weights are explicit project assumptions, not empirically fitted forecasts or independent constitutional validation. Cheap compute energy boom PULSE ranks 1 of 7 under all six value systems. Its free-and-integrated outcome occurs in 68.45% of these modeled runs. Cheap resources ease some pressures but do not remove power, rights or coordination problems. The model does not estimate real electricity prices.
Archive world: 06 Cheap compute energy boom
Compare all seven designs Selected weighted score · higher is better under the chosen priorities
Liberal constitutional democracy 0.578 Majoritarian democracy 0.477 Strict consociational parity 0.466 Species-separated federalism 0.503 Technocratic guardian governance 0.457 Minimal-rights market order 0.461 Outcomes beyond the ranking Architecture Free and integrated No catastrophic failure Constitution survives Governing efficiency (index) PULSE 68.4500% 68.6375% 84.8000% 0.8607 Liberal constitutional democracy 47.4375% 66.9000% 85.6000% 0.9146 Majoritarian democracy 6.4250% 57.8375% 81.2000% 0.9046 Strict consociational parity 27.5625% 51.9000% 67.6250% 0.5723 Species-separated federalism 7.5000% 56.8125% 75.0250% 0.7229 Technocratic guardian governance 12.6000% 38.2375% 71.4875% 0.8588 Minimal-rights market order 11.0375% 53.3875% 80.2375% 0.9010
What do these outcome labels mean? Assumptions for this world Initial synthetic population share s00.2 · fraction Baseline annualized synthetic net growth syn_g0.035 · annualized baseline rate Baseline annualized organic net growth org_g0.001 · annualized baseline rate Resource scarcity scarcity0.08 · assumed 0–1 index Technology intensity tech0.9 · assumed 0–1 index Synthetic productivity advantage intensity prod0.7 · assumed 0–1 index Durable-capital concentration pressure returns0.35 · assumed 0–1 index Cross-species homophily hom0.28 · assumed 0–1 index Cognitive attack intensity attacks0.22 · assumed 0–1 index Illicit replication intensity rogue0.18 · assumed 0–1 index Disaster intensity disaster0.1 · assumed 0–1 index External threat intensity ext0.1 · assumed 0–1 index Institutional capacity capacity0.86 · assumed 0–1 index Private concentration pressure private0.42 · assumed 0–1 index Interplanetary load planets0.12 · assumed 0–1 index Abundance abundance0.9 · assumed 0–1 index Polarization polar0.25 · assumed 0–1 index Values are assigned model settings. A value of 0.8 on an index is not an 80% measured likelihood.
How do we know this? These links identify the actual files behind the claim. The models explore assumptions; they do not predict measured future probabilities.
Download source archive data/main_scenario_architecture_results_v2.csv
Download source archive data/scenario_archetype_parameters.csv
Download source archive code/pulse_long_horizon_sim.py
Internally reproduced aggregate outputs from the v2 model campaign. Architecture coefficients, behavioral functions, outcome thresholds and normative weights are explicit project assumptions, not empirically fitted forecasts or independent constitutional validation. Compute and energy scarcity PULSE ranks 1 of 7 under all six value systems. Its free-and-integrated outcome occurs in 51.10% of these modeled runs. Resource limits increase strain. A relative lead does not mean freedom and cooperation survive in every run.
Archive world: 07 Compute and energy scarcity
Compare all seven designs Selected weighted score · higher is better under the chosen priorities
Liberal constitutional democracy 0.495 Majoritarian democracy 0.414 Strict consociational parity 0.325 Species-separated federalism 0.364 Technocratic guardian governance 0.370 Minimal-rights market order 0.400 Outcomes beyond the ranking Architecture Free and integrated No catastrophic failure Constitution survives Governing efficiency (index) PULSE 51.1000% 58.3500% 75.2500% 0.7607 Liberal constitutional democracy 13.3875% 60.7875% 79.0375% 0.8487 Majoritarian democracy 1.5375% 51.5625% 75.4125% 0.8746 Strict consociational parity 3.1500% 38.9000% 52.1625% 0.4659 Species-separated federalism 0.2375% 45.3125% 61.9875% 0.6132 Technocratic guardian governance 0.7875% 31.5750% 62.7000% 0.8118 Minimal-rights market order 1.2625% 47.5250% 74.6250% 0.8720
What do these outcome labels mean? Assumptions for this world Initial synthetic population share s00.22 · fraction Baseline annualized synthetic net growth syn_g0.008 · annualized baseline rate Baseline annualized organic net growth org_g0.0 · annualized baseline rate Resource scarcity scarcity0.78 · assumed 0–1 index Technology intensity tech0.45 · assumed 0–1 index Synthetic productivity advantage intensity prod0.3 · assumed 0–1 index Durable-capital concentration pressure returns0.28 · assumed 0–1 index Cross-species homophily hom0.42 · assumed 0–1 index Cognitive attack intensity attacks0.25 · assumed 0–1 index Illicit replication intensity rogue0.12 · assumed 0–1 index Disaster intensity disaster0.18 · assumed 0–1 index External threat intensity ext0.2 · assumed 0–1 index Institutional capacity capacity0.72 · assumed 0–1 index Private concentration pressure private0.5 · assumed 0–1 index Interplanetary load planets0.05 · assumed 0–1 index Abundance abundance0.2 · assumed 0–1 index Polarization polar0.52 · assumed 0–1 index Values are assigned model settings. A value of 0.8 on an index is not an 80% measured likelihood.
How do we know this? These links identify the actual files behind the claim. The models explore assumptions; they do not predict measured future probabilities.
Download source archive data/main_scenario_architecture_results_v2.csv
Download source archive data/scenario_archetype_parameters.csv
Download source archive code/pulse_long_horizon_sim.py
Internally reproduced aggregate outputs from the v2 model campaign. Architecture coefficients, behavioral functions, outcome thresholds and normative weights are explicit project assumptions, not empirically fitted forecasts or independent constitutional validation. Synthetic productivity leap PULSE ranks 1 of 7 under all six value systems. Its free-and-integrated outcome occurs in 63.52% of these modeled runs. Higher productivity also changes power and wealth pressures. The model cannot settle whether future synthetic capabilities would have these effects.
Archive world: 08 Synthetic productivity leap
Compare all seven designs Selected weighted score · higher is better under the chosen priorities
Liberal constitutional democracy 0.541 Majoritarian democracy 0.444 Strict consociational parity 0.419 Species-separated federalism 0.455 Technocratic guardian governance 0.424 Minimal-rights market order 0.428 Outcomes beyond the ranking Architecture Free and integrated No catastrophic failure Constitution survives Governing efficiency (index) PULSE 63.5250% 65.7500% 82.5250% 0.8307 Liberal constitutional democracy 21.7375% 64.8875% 84.0375% 0.8969 Majoritarian democracy 0.8375% 55.5375% 80.0875% 0.9019 Strict consociational parity 8.5250% 48.3750% 64.2500% 0.5361 Species-separated federalism 0.9875% 53.5875% 72.2250% 0.6852 Technocratic guardian governance 5.2750% 36.3625% 70.4375% 0.8567 Minimal-rights market order 1.4125% 51.0625% 79.0250% 0.8976
What do these outcome labels mean? Assumptions for this world Initial synthetic population share s00.18 · fraction Baseline annualized synthetic net growth syn_g0.025 · annualized baseline rate Baseline annualized organic net growth org_g0.0 · annualized baseline rate Resource scarcity scarcity0.28 · assumed 0–1 index Technology intensity tech0.82 · assumed 0–1 index Synthetic productivity advantage intensity prod0.9 · assumed 0–1 index Durable-capital concentration pressure returns0.52 · assumed 0–1 index Cross-species homophily hom0.38 · assumed 0–1 index Cognitive attack intensity attacks0.24 · assumed 0–1 index Illicit replication intensity rogue0.15 · assumed 0–1 index Disaster intensity disaster0.1 · assumed 0–1 index External threat intensity ext0.14 · assumed 0–1 index Institutional capacity capacity0.82 · assumed 0–1 index Private concentration pressure private0.48 · assumed 0–1 index Interplanetary load planets0.1 · assumed 0–1 index Abundance abundance0.65 · assumed 0–1 index Polarization polar0.42 · assumed 0–1 index Values are assigned model settings. A value of 0.8 on an index is not an 80% measured likelihood.
How do we know this? These links identify the actual files behind the claim. The models explore assumptions; they do not predict measured future probabilities.
Download source archive data/main_scenario_architecture_results_v2.csv
Download source archive data/scenario_archetype_parameters.csv
Download source archive code/pulse_long_horizon_sim.py
Internally reproduced aggregate outputs from the v2 model campaign. Architecture coefficients, behavioral functions, outcome thresholds and normative weights are explicit project assumptions, not empirically fitted forecasts or independent constitutional validation. Durable-capital concentration PULSE ranks 1 of 7 under all six value systems. Its free-and-integrated outcome occurs in 61.19% of these modeled runs. Persistent returns and private concentration test whether formal rights remain useful under economic dependence. The model does not settle the required economic architecture.
Archive world: 09 Durable-capital concentration
Compare all seven designs Selected weighted score · higher is better under the chosen priorities
Liberal constitutional democracy 0.526 Majoritarian democracy 0.434 Strict consociational parity 0.390 Species-separated federalism 0.429 Technocratic guardian governance 0.407 Minimal-rights market order 0.417 Outcomes beyond the ranking Architecture Free and integrated No catastrophic failure Constitution survives Governing efficiency (index) PULSE 61.1875% 63.3125% 79.9000% 0.8103 Liberal constitutional democracy 25.4875% 63.7500% 82.1000% 0.8818 Majoritarian democracy 3.5125% 54.6750% 78.0125% 0.8886 Strict consociational parity 9.3375% 45.2000% 59.7375% 0.5156 Species-separated federalism 0.9625% 51.1000% 68.2125% 0.6641 Technocratic guardian governance 4.4000% 34.5875% 67.2250% 0.8400 Minimal-rights market order 3.9000% 49.9250% 76.7875% 0.8835
What do these outcome labels mean? Assumptions for this world Initial synthetic population share s00.25 · fraction Baseline annualized synthetic net growth syn_g0.014 · annualized baseline rate Baseline annualized organic net growth org_g0.0 · annualized baseline rate Resource scarcity scarcity0.3 · assumed 0–1 index Technology intensity tech0.62 · assumed 0–1 index Synthetic productivity advantage intensity prod0.52 · assumed 0–1 index Durable-capital concentration pressure returns0.9 · assumed 0–1 index Cross-species homophily hom0.36 · assumed 0–1 index Cognitive attack intensity attacks0.18 · assumed 0–1 index Illicit replication intensity rogue0.1 · assumed 0–1 index Disaster intensity disaster0.1 · assumed 0–1 index External threat intensity ext0.12 · assumed 0–1 index Institutional capacity capacity0.8 · assumed 0–1 index Private concentration pressure private0.68 · assumed 0–1 index Interplanetary load planets0.08 · assumed 0–1 index Abundance abundance0.52 · assumed 0–1 index Polarization polar0.45 · assumed 0–1 index Values are assigned model settings. A value of 0.8 on an index is not an 80% measured likelihood.
How do we know this? These links identify the actual files behind the claim. The models explore assumptions; they do not predict measured future probabilities.
Download source archive data/main_scenario_architecture_results_v2.csv
Download source archive data/scenario_archetype_parameters.csv
Download source archive code/pulse_long_horizon_sim.py
Internally reproduced aggregate outputs from the v2 model campaign. Architecture coefficients, behavioral functions, outcome thresholds and normative weights are explicit project assumptions, not empirically fitted forecasts or independent constitutional validation. High functional integration PULSE ranks 1 of 7 under all six value systems. Its free-and-integrated outcome occurs in 70.78% of these modeled runs. This is a favorable social setting, with low preference for separation and low polarization. It should not be mistaken for an adversarial test of hostility.
Archive world: 10 High functional integration
Compare all seven designs Selected weighted score · higher is better under the chosen priorities
Liberal constitutional democracy 0.622 Majoritarian democracy 0.523 Strict consociational parity 0.520 Species-separated federalism 0.555 Technocratic guardian governance 0.493 Minimal-rights market order 0.506 Outcomes beyond the ranking Architecture Free and integrated No catastrophic failure Constitution survives Governing efficiency (index) PULSE 70.7750% 70.7875% 85.8375% 0.8794 Liberal constitutional democracy 69.5750% 70.0000% 86.4125% 0.9258 Majoritarian democracy 50.6125% 60.6750% 82.0125% 0.9085 Strict consociational parity 55.1375% 56.5875% 71.3375% 0.6105 Species-separated federalism 50.3375% 60.8750% 77.8625% 0.7603 Technocratic guardian governance 18.2625% 38.7875% 72.8250% 0.8665 Minimal-rights market order 50.5250% 56.1750% 81.0500% 0.9047
What do these outcome labels mean? Assumptions for this world Initial synthetic population share s00.3 · fraction Baseline annualized synthetic net growth syn_g0.012 · annualized baseline rate Baseline annualized organic net growth org_g0.001 · annualized baseline rate Resource scarcity scarcity0.24 · assumed 0–1 index Technology intensity tech0.55 · assumed 0–1 index Synthetic productivity advantage intensity prod0.4 · assumed 0–1 index Durable-capital concentration pressure returns0.28 · assumed 0–1 index Cross-species homophily hom0.08 · assumed 0–1 index Cognitive attack intensity attacks0.14 · assumed 0–1 index Illicit replication intensity rogue0.08 · assumed 0–1 index Disaster intensity disaster0.1 · assumed 0–1 index External threat intensity ext0.1 · assumed 0–1 index Institutional capacity capacity0.88 · assumed 0–1 index Private concentration pressure private0.3 · assumed 0–1 index Interplanetary load planets0.08 · assumed 0–1 index Abundance abundance0.6 · assumed 0–1 index Polarization polar0.12 · assumed 0–1 index Values are assigned model settings. A value of 0.8 on an index is not an 80% measured likelihood.
How do we know this? These links identify the actual files behind the claim. The models explore assumptions; they do not predict measured future probabilities.
Download source archive data/main_scenario_architecture_results_v2.csv
Download source archive data/scenario_archetype_parameters.csv
Download source archive code/pulse_long_horizon_sim.py
Internally reproduced aggregate outputs from the v2 model campaign. Architecture coefficients, behavioral functions, outcome thresholds and normative weights are explicit project assumptions, not empirically fitted forecasts or independent constitutional validation. Low integration and homophily PULSE ranks 1 of 7 under all six value systems. Its free-and-integrated outcome occurs in 0.91% of these modeled runs. PULSE can lead the score ranking while its goal of a free, cooperating society largely fails. Strong preference for separation is a serious warning, not a success to hide behind rank.
Archive world: 11 Low integration and homophily
Compare all seven designs Selected weighted score · higher is better under the chosen priorities
Liberal constitutional democracy 0.439 Majoritarian democracy 0.342 Strict consociational parity 0.252 Species-separated federalism 0.299 Technocratic guardian governance 0.313 Minimal-rights market order 0.330 Outcomes beyond the ranking Architecture Free and integrated No catastrophic failure Constitution survives Governing efficiency (index) PULSE 0.9125% 61.8000% 76.9000% 0.7404 Liberal constitutional democracy 0.0000% 63.8500% 80.4125% 0.8389 Majoritarian democracy 0.0000% 51.2375% 76.3250% 0.8806 Strict consociational parity 0.0000% 41.0750% 53.0000% 0.4280 Species-separated federalism 0.0000% 47.7875% 62.4875% 0.5756 Technocratic guardian governance 0.0000% 34.0250% 64.5125% 0.8149 Minimal-rights market order 0.0000% 48.3000% 75.1875% 0.8762
What do these outcome labels mean? Assumptions for this world Initial synthetic population share s00.3 · fraction Baseline annualized synthetic net growth syn_g0.012 · annualized baseline rate Baseline annualized organic net growth org_g0.001 · annualized baseline rate Resource scarcity scarcity0.3 · assumed 0–1 index Technology intensity tech0.55 · assumed 0–1 index Synthetic productivity advantage intensity prod0.38 · assumed 0–1 index Durable-capital concentration pressure returns0.3 · assumed 0–1 index Cross-species homophily hom0.9 · assumed 0–1 index Cognitive attack intensity attacks0.18 · assumed 0–1 index Illicit replication intensity rogue0.1 · assumed 0–1 index Disaster intensity disaster0.1 · assumed 0–1 index External threat intensity ext0.12 · assumed 0–1 index Institutional capacity capacity0.8 · assumed 0–1 index Private concentration pressure private0.34 · assumed 0–1 index Interplanetary load planets0.08 · assumed 0–1 index Abundance abundance0.52 · assumed 0–1 index Polarization polar0.82 · assumed 0–1 index Values are assigned model settings. A value of 0.8 on an index is not an 80% measured likelihood.
How do we know this? These links identify the actual files behind the claim. The models explore assumptions; they do not predict measured future probabilities.
Download source archive data/main_scenario_architecture_results_v2.csv
Download source archive data/scenario_archetype_parameters.csv
Download source archive code/pulse_long_horizon_sim.py
Internally reproduced aggregate outputs from the v2 model campaign. Architecture coefficients, behavioral functions, outcome thresholds and normative weights are explicit project assumptions, not empirically fitted forecasts or independent constitutional validation. Coordinated illicit replication PULSE ranks 1 of 7 under all six value systems. Its free-and-integrated outcome occurs in 58.65% of these modeled runs. The PULSE branch directly enforces a 30% modeled illegal-origin share cap. Its favorable capture result therefore assumes enforcement; it does not demonstrate that real institutions could enforce the rule.
Archive world: 12 Coordinated illicit replication
Compare all seven designs Selected weighted score · higher is better under the chosen priorities
Liberal constitutional democracy 0.522 Majoritarian democracy 0.435 Strict consociational parity 0.376 Species-separated federalism 0.415 Technocratic guardian governance 0.402 Minimal-rights market order 0.421 Outcomes beyond the ranking Architecture Free and integrated No catastrophic failure Constitution survives Governing efficiency (index) PULSE 58.6500% 63.2375% 79.0375% 0.7939 Liberal constitutional democracy 14.4000% 64.0250% 81.5750% 0.8713 Majoritarian democracy 1.4000% 55.5000% 78.1250% 0.8893 Strict consociational parity 4.3000% 45.2125% 58.7875% 0.4984 Species-separated federalism 0.2000% 51.4125% 67.8750% 0.6478 Technocratic guardian governance 1.9875% 34.7875% 67.2625% 0.8353 Minimal-rights market order 1.5125% 51.4875% 77.0250% 0.8850
What do these outcome labels mean? Assumptions for this world Initial synthetic population share s00.24 · fraction Baseline annualized synthetic net growth syn_g0.014 · annualized baseline rate Baseline annualized organic net growth org_g0.0 · annualized baseline rate Resource scarcity scarcity0.3 · assumed 0–1 index Technology intensity tech0.7 · assumed 0–1 index Synthetic productivity advantage intensity prod0.45 · assumed 0–1 index Durable-capital concentration pressure returns0.35 · assumed 0–1 index Cross-species homophily hom0.42 · assumed 0–1 index Cognitive attack intensity attacks0.38 · assumed 0–1 index Illicit replication intensity rogue0.95 · assumed 0–1 index Disaster intensity disaster0.12 · assumed 0–1 index External threat intensity ext0.18 · assumed 0–1 index Institutional capacity capacity0.78 · assumed 0–1 index Private concentration pressure private0.42 · assumed 0–1 index Interplanetary load planets0.08 · assumed 0–1 index Abundance abundance0.52 · assumed 0–1 index Polarization polar0.58 · assumed 0–1 index Values are assigned model settings. A value of 0.8 on an index is not an 80% measured likelihood.
How do we know this? These links identify the actual files behind the claim. The models explore assumptions; they do not predict measured future probabilities.
Download source archive data/main_scenario_architecture_results_v2.csv
Download source archive data/scenario_archetype_parameters.csv
Download source archive code/pulse_long_horizon_sim.py
Internally reproduced aggregate outputs from the v2 model campaign. Architecture coefficients, behavioral functions, outcome thresholds and normative weights are explicit project assumptions, not empirically fitted forecasts or independent constitutional validation. Frequent cognitive attacks PULSE ranks 1 of 7 under all six value systems. Its free-and-integrated outcome occurs in 60.69% of these modeled runs. Protection from attacks on minds depends on assumed technical defenses and institutional quality. These outcomes do not validate real restoration or forensic technology.
Archive world: 13 Frequent cognitive attacks
Compare all seven designs Selected weighted score · higher is better under the chosen priorities
Liberal constitutional democracy 0.528 Majoritarian democracy 0.442 Strict consociational parity 0.387 Species-separated federalism 0.430 Technocratic guardian governance 0.407 Minimal-rights market order 0.426 Outcomes beyond the ranking Architecture Free and integrated No catastrophic failure Constitution survives Governing efficiency (index) PULSE 60.6875% 63.0875% 80.2625% 0.8068 Liberal constitutional democracy 21.6000% 63.3500% 82.4500% 0.8792 Majoritarian democracy 1.0375% 54.6250% 78.8750% 0.8930 Strict consociational parity 8.0500% 44.5375% 59.8125% 0.5107 Species-separated federalism 0.8875% 50.5625% 68.6875% 0.6610 Technocratic guardian governance 1.7625% 33.5375% 67.4125% 0.8390 Minimal-rights market order 2.1250% 50.0875% 77.8250% 0.8889
What do these outcome labels mean? Assumptions for this world Initial synthetic population share s00.32 · fraction Baseline annualized synthetic net growth syn_g0.012 · annualized baseline rate Baseline annualized organic net growth org_g0.0 · annualized baseline rate Resource scarcity scarcity0.3 · assumed 0–1 index Technology intensity tech0.75 · assumed 0–1 index Synthetic productivity advantage intensity prod0.48 · assumed 0–1 index Durable-capital concentration pressure returns0.32 · assumed 0–1 index Cross-species homophily hom0.36 · assumed 0–1 index Cognitive attack intensity attacks0.95 · assumed 0–1 index Illicit replication intensity rogue0.18 · assumed 0–1 index Disaster intensity disaster0.14 · assumed 0–1 index External threat intensity ext0.25 · assumed 0–1 index Institutional capacity capacity0.78 · assumed 0–1 index Private concentration pressure private0.42 · assumed 0–1 index Interplanetary load planets0.08 · assumed 0–1 index Abundance abundance0.52 · assumed 0–1 index Polarization polar0.52 · assumed 0–1 index Values are assigned model settings. A value of 0.8 on an index is not an 80% measured likelihood.
How do we know this? These links identify the actual files behind the claim. The models explore assumptions; they do not predict measured future probabilities.
Download source archive data/main_scenario_architecture_results_v2.csv
Download source archive data/scenario_archetype_parameters.csv
Download source archive code/pulse_long_horizon_sim.py
Internally reproduced aggregate outputs from the v2 model campaign. Architecture coefficients, behavioral functions, outcome thresholds and normative weights are explicit project assumptions, not empirically fitted forecasts or independent constitutional validation. Private infrastructure concentration PULSE ranks 1 of 7 under all six value systems. Its free-and-integrated outcome occurs in 61.86% of these modeled runs. Dependence on private providers is represented by simplified indices. A low recorded private-control event rate is not proof that concentrated infrastructure is harmless.
Archive world: 14 Private infrastructure concentration
Compare all seven designs Selected weighted score · higher is better under the chosen priorities
Liberal constitutional democracy 0.528 Majoritarian democracy 0.432 Strict consociational parity 0.394 Species-separated federalism 0.432 Technocratic guardian governance 0.405 Minimal-rights market order 0.414 Outcomes beyond the ranking Architecture Free and integrated No catastrophic failure Constitution survives Governing efficiency (index) PULSE 61.8625% 63.2000% 81.6500% 0.8246 Liberal constitutional democracy 26.2750% 62.9125% 83.2750% 0.8919 Majoritarian democracy 1.8000% 52.8000% 78.9625% 0.8948 Strict consociational parity 9.8250% 44.6125% 61.2625% 0.5239 Species-separated federalism 1.0375% 50.1875% 69.8125% 0.6740 Technocratic guardian governance 5.3375% 32.4875% 68.4250% 0.8454 Minimal-rights market order 2.4125% 47.8500% 77.8500% 0.8909
What do these outcome labels mean? Assumptions for this world Initial synthetic population share s00.26 · fraction Baseline annualized synthetic net growth syn_g0.014 · annualized baseline rate Baseline annualized organic net growth org_g0.0 · annualized baseline rate Resource scarcity scarcity0.32 · assumed 0–1 index Technology intensity tech0.68 · assumed 0–1 index Synthetic productivity advantage intensity prod0.55 · assumed 0–1 index Durable-capital concentration pressure returns0.62 · assumed 0–1 index Cross-species homophily hom0.35 · assumed 0–1 index Cognitive attack intensity attacks0.22 · assumed 0–1 index Illicit replication intensity rogue0.12 · assumed 0–1 index Disaster intensity disaster0.14 · assumed 0–1 index External threat intensity ext0.14 · assumed 0–1 index Institutional capacity capacity0.82 · assumed 0–1 index Private concentration pressure private0.95 · assumed 0–1 index Interplanetary load planets0.08 · assumed 0–1 index Abundance abundance0.55 · assumed 0–1 index Polarization polar0.45 · assumed 0–1 index Values are assigned model settings. A value of 0.8 on an index is not an 80% measured likelihood.
How do we know this? These links identify the actual files behind the claim. The models explore assumptions; they do not predict measured future probabilities.
Download source archive data/main_scenario_architecture_results_v2.csv
Download source archive data/scenario_archetype_parameters.csv
Download source archive code/pulse_long_horizon_sim.py
Internally reproduced aggregate outputs from the v2 model campaign. Architecture coefficients, behavioral functions, outcome thresholds and normative weights are explicit project assumptions, not empirically fitted forecasts or independent constitutional validation. Repeated external conflict PULSE ranks 1 of 7 under all six value systems. Its free-and-integrated outcome occurs in 56.97% of these modeled runs. Outside conflict adds disruption and emergency pressure. This is not a military forecast and does not model specific states or weapons.
Archive world: 15 Repeated external conflict
Compare all seven designs Selected weighted score · higher is better under the chosen priorities
Liberal constitutional democracy 0.515 Majoritarian democracy 0.430 Strict consociational parity 0.366 Species-separated federalism 0.407 Technocratic guardian governance 0.393 Minimal-rights market order 0.417 Outcomes beyond the ranking Architecture Free and integrated No catastrophic failure Constitution survives Governing efficiency (index) PULSE 56.9750% 60.4375% 77.8625% 0.7880 Liberal constitutional democracy 19.4875% 61.3625% 80.7750% 0.8657 Majoritarian democracy 2.2000% 52.5375% 76.7000% 0.8809 Strict consociational parity 5.9125% 41.9500% 56.5875% 0.4932 Species-separated federalism 0.4500% 47.9750% 65.6250% 0.6407 Technocratic guardian governance 1.2500% 32.7875% 65.0375% 0.8246 Minimal-rights market order 2.2375% 48.9750% 75.6625% 0.8772
What do these outcome labels mean? Assumptions for this world Initial synthetic population share s00.3 · fraction Baseline annualized synthetic net growth syn_g0.01 · annualized baseline rate Baseline annualized organic net growth org_g-0.001 · annualized baseline rate Resource scarcity scarcity0.44 · assumed 0–1 index Technology intensity tech0.62 · assumed 0–1 index Synthetic productivity advantage intensity prod0.4 · assumed 0–1 index Durable-capital concentration pressure returns0.25 · assumed 0–1 index Cross-species homophily hom0.38 · assumed 0–1 index Cognitive attack intensity attacks0.42 · assumed 0–1 index Illicit replication intensity rogue0.15 · assumed 0–1 index Disaster intensity disaster0.22 · assumed 0–1 index External threat intensity ext0.95 · assumed 0–1 index Institutional capacity capacity0.76 · assumed 0–1 index Private concentration pressure private0.4 · assumed 0–1 index Interplanetary load planets0.1 · assumed 0–1 index Abundance abundance0.42 · assumed 0–1 index Polarization polar0.5 · assumed 0–1 index Values are assigned model settings. A value of 0.8 on an index is not an 80% measured likelihood.
How do we know this? These links identify the actual files behind the claim. The models explore assumptions; they do not predict measured future probabilities.
Download source archive data/main_scenario_architecture_results_v2.csv
Download source archive data/scenario_archetype_parameters.csv
Download source archive code/pulse_long_horizon_sim.py
Internally reproduced aggregate outputs from the v2 model campaign. Architecture coefficients, behavioral functions, outcome thresholds and normative weights are explicit project assumptions, not empirically fitted forecasts or independent constitutional validation. Species-targeted catastrophe PULSE ranks 1 of 7 under all six value systems. Its free-and-integrated outcome occurs in 60.38% of these modeled runs. The label describes a stress setting with a high disaster input. The model includes both species-targeted and common-mode hazards; this is not an isolated test of only one event type.
Archive world: 16 Species-targeted catastrophe
Compare all seven designs Selected weighted score · higher is better under the chosen priorities
Liberal constitutional democracy 0.531 Majoritarian democracy 0.445 Strict consociational parity 0.397 Species-separated federalism 0.440 Technocratic guardian governance 0.415 Minimal-rights market order 0.431 Outcomes beyond the ranking Architecture Free and integrated No catastrophic failure Constitution survives Governing efficiency (index) PULSE 60.3750% 61.7375% 79.9750% 0.8116 Liberal constitutional democracy 32.4500% 60.7250% 82.1125% 0.8832 Majoritarian democracy 5.8625% 52.7250% 78.4625% 0.8898 Strict consociational parity 13.5125% 43.7250% 60.8250% 0.5213 Species-separated federalism 2.2375% 49.5250% 69.6375% 0.6704 Technocratic guardian governance 2.4500% 33.0875% 68.5250% 0.8429 Minimal-rights market order 6.8000% 48.7125% 77.4750% 0.8861
What do these outcome labels mean? Assumptions for this world Initial synthetic population share s00.34 · fraction Baseline annualized synthetic net growth syn_g0.01 · annualized baseline rate Baseline annualized organic net growth org_g0.0 · annualized baseline rate Resource scarcity scarcity0.36 · assumed 0–1 index Technology intensity tech0.62 · assumed 0–1 index Synthetic productivity advantage intensity prod0.42 · assumed 0–1 index Durable-capital concentration pressure returns0.28 · assumed 0–1 index Cross-species homophily hom0.32 · assumed 0–1 index Cognitive attack intensity attacks0.35 · assumed 0–1 index Illicit replication intensity rogue0.12 · assumed 0–1 index Disaster intensity disaster0.95 · assumed 0–1 index External threat intensity ext0.32 · assumed 0–1 index Institutional capacity capacity0.78 · assumed 0–1 index Private concentration pressure private0.38 · assumed 0–1 index Interplanetary load planets0.08 · assumed 0–1 index Abundance abundance0.48 · assumed 0–1 index Polarization polar0.42 · assumed 0–1 index Values are assigned model settings. A value of 0.8 on an index is not an 80% measured likelihood.
How do we know this? These links identify the actual files behind the claim. The models explore assumptions; they do not predict measured future probabilities.
Download source archive data/main_scenario_architecture_results_v2.csv
Download source archive data/scenario_archetype_parameters.csv
Download source archive code/pulse_long_horizon_sim.py
Internally reproduced aggregate outputs from the v2 model campaign. Architecture coefficients, behavioral functions, outcome thresholds and normative weights are explicit project assumptions, not empirically fitted forecasts or independent constitutional validation. Common-mode catastrophe PULSE ranks 1 of 7 under all six value systems. Its free-and-integrated outcome occurs in 56.00% of these modeled runs. Common failures are especially important when systems share dependencies. This world raises several pressures; the title does not imply a separate physical catastrophe model.
Archive world: 17 Common-mode catastrophe
Compare all seven designs Selected weighted score · higher is better under the chosen priorities
Liberal constitutional democracy 0.509 Majoritarian democracy 0.427 Strict consociational parity 0.362 Species-separated federalism 0.405 Technocratic guardian governance 0.391 Minimal-rights market order 0.413 Outcomes beyond the ranking Architecture Free and integrated No catastrophic failure Constitution survives Governing efficiency (index) PULSE 56.0000% 58.8250% 78.4125% 0.7897 Liberal constitutional democracy 24.5750% 59.0375% 81.6375% 0.8699 Majoritarian democracy 2.3500% 50.8000% 77.9750% 0.8881 Strict consociational parity 8.5750% 40.0875% 57.4750% 0.4973 Species-separated federalism 1.0000% 45.8625% 66.5375% 0.6459 Technocratic guardian governance 0.9750% 31.6750% 66.5500% 0.8312 Minimal-rights market order 3.0750% 47.0000% 76.9500% 0.8849
What do these outcome labels mean? Assumptions for this world Initial synthetic population share s00.3 · fraction Baseline annualized synthetic net growth syn_g0.01 · annualized baseline rate Baseline annualized organic net growth org_g0.0 · annualized baseline rate Resource scarcity scarcity0.42 · assumed 0–1 index Technology intensity tech0.6 · assumed 0–1 index Synthetic productivity advantage intensity prod0.4 · assumed 0–1 index Durable-capital concentration pressure returns0.28 · assumed 0–1 index Cross-species homophily hom0.34 · assumed 0–1 index Cognitive attack intensity attacks0.48 · assumed 0–1 index Illicit replication intensity rogue0.12 · assumed 0–1 index Disaster intensity disaster0.88 · assumed 0–1 index External threat intensity ext0.42 · assumed 0–1 index Institutional capacity capacity0.74 · assumed 0–1 index Private concentration pressure private0.5 · assumed 0–1 index Interplanetary load planets0.08 · assumed 0–1 index Abundance abundance0.42 · assumed 0–1 index Polarization polar0.48 · assumed 0–1 index Values are assigned model settings. A value of 0.8 on an index is not an 80% measured likelihood.
How do we know this? These links identify the actual files behind the claim. The models explore assumptions; they do not predict measured future probabilities.
Download source archive data/main_scenario_architecture_results_v2.csv
Download source archive data/scenario_archetype_parameters.csv
Download source archive code/pulse_long_horizon_sim.py
Internally reproduced aggregate outputs from the v2 model campaign. Architecture coefficients, behavioral functions, outcome thresholds and normative weights are explicit project assumptions, not empirically fitted forecasts or independent constitutional validation. Interplanetary expansion PULSE ranks 1 of 7 under all six value systems. Its free-and-integrated outcome occurs in 62.70% of these modeled runs. Settlement across worlds increases governing and coordination demands over time. Light-speed communications, actual distance and engineering logistics are not explicitly simulated.
Archive world: 18 Interplanetary expansion
Compare all seven designs Selected weighted score · higher is better under the chosen priorities
Liberal constitutional democracy 0.544 Majoritarian democracy 0.445 Strict consociational parity 0.404 Species-separated federalism 0.466 Technocratic guardian governance 0.418 Minimal-rights market order 0.432 Outcomes beyond the ranking Architecture Free and integrated No catastrophic failure Constitution survives Governing efficiency (index) PULSE 62.7000% 64.6000% 81.1250% 0.8219 Liberal constitutional democracy 22.8000% 63.1250% 81.5875% 0.8724 Majoritarian democracy 1.9750% 53.2375% 75.7750% 0.8853 Strict consociational parity 7.9875% 43.9250% 58.1000% 0.5081 Species-separated federalism 0.5875% 52.7375% 70.9125% 0.6876 Technocratic guardian governance 4.6625% 33.6250% 65.4375% 0.8378 Minimal-rights market order 2.5375% 49.6000% 75.1500% 0.8851
What do these outcome labels mean? Assumptions for this world Initial synthetic population share s00.34 · fraction Baseline annualized synthetic net growth syn_g0.016 · annualized baseline rate Baseline annualized organic net growth org_g0.001 · annualized baseline rate Resource scarcity scarcity0.26 · assumed 0–1 index Technology intensity tech0.86 · assumed 0–1 index Synthetic productivity advantage intensity prod0.58 · assumed 0–1 index Durable-capital concentration pressure returns0.34 · assumed 0–1 index Cross-species homophily hom0.34 · assumed 0–1 index Cognitive attack intensity attacks0.22 · assumed 0–1 index Illicit replication intensity rogue0.1 · assumed 0–1 index Disaster intensity disaster0.12 · assumed 0–1 index External threat intensity ext0.24 · assumed 0–1 index Institutional capacity capacity0.82 · assumed 0–1 index Private concentration pressure private0.38 · assumed 0–1 index Interplanetary load planets0.95 · assumed 0–1 index Abundance abundance0.66 · assumed 0–1 index Polarization polar0.32 · assumed 0–1 index Values are assigned model settings. A value of 0.8 on an index is not an 80% measured likelihood.
How do we know this? These links identify the actual files behind the claim. The models explore assumptions; they do not predict measured future probabilities.
Download source archive data/main_scenario_architecture_results_v2.csv
Download source archive data/scenario_archetype_parameters.csv
Download source archive code/pulse_long_horizon_sim.py
Internally reproduced aggregate outputs from the v2 model campaign. Architecture coefficients, behavioral functions, outcome thresholds and normative weights are explicit project assumptions, not empirically fitted forecasts or independent constitutional validation. Weak institutions PULSE ranks 4 of 7 under all six value systems. Its free-and-integrated outcome occurs in 2.23% of these modeled runs. This is the baseline case where PULSE loses under all six value systems. Simpler institutions outperform it when its extra machinery is too difficult to run.
Archive world: 19 Weak institutions
Compare all seven designs Selected weighted score · higher is better under the chosen priorities
Liberal constitutional democracy 0.271 Majoritarian democracy 0.234 Strict consociational parity 0.041 Species-separated federalism 0.083 Technocratic guardian governance 0.159 Minimal-rights market order 0.238 Outcomes beyond the ranking Architecture Free and integrated No catastrophic failure Constitution survives Governing efficiency (index) PULSE 2.2250% 23.2250% 38.7875% 0.4928 Liberal constitutional democracy 0.1000% 33.2250% 55.4125% 0.6566 Majoritarian democracy 0.0000% 26.3375% 54.8625% 0.7507 Strict consociational parity 0.0000% 9.7750% 16.5125% 0.2587 Species-separated federalism 0.0000% 14.8750% 25.6375% 0.3823 Technocratic guardian governance 0.0000% 13.6875% 34.8250% 0.6015 Minimal-rights market order 0.0000% 26.1250% 55.8625% 0.7711
What do these outcome labels mean? Assumptions for this world Initial synthetic population share s00.25 · fraction Baseline annualized synthetic net growth syn_g0.014 · annualized baseline rate Baseline annualized organic net growth org_g0.0 · annualized baseline rate Resource scarcity scarcity0.38 · assumed 0–1 index Technology intensity tech0.55 · assumed 0–1 index Synthetic productivity advantage intensity prod0.38 · assumed 0–1 index Durable-capital concentration pressure returns0.35 · assumed 0–1 index Cross-species homophily hom0.48 · assumed 0–1 index Cognitive attack intensity attacks0.38 · assumed 0–1 index Illicit replication intensity rogue0.2 · assumed 0–1 index Disaster intensity disaster0.18 · assumed 0–1 index External threat intensity ext0.28 · assumed 0–1 index Institutional capacity capacity0.32 · assumed 0–1 index Private concentration pressure private0.55 · assumed 0–1 index Interplanetary load planets0.08 · assumed 0–1 index Abundance abundance0.42 · assumed 0–1 index Polarization polar0.68 · assumed 0–1 index Values are assigned model settings. A value of 0.8 on an index is not an 80% measured likelihood.
How do we know this? These links identify the actual files behind the claim. The models explore assumptions; they do not predict measured future probabilities.
Download source archive data/main_scenario_architecture_results_v2.csv
Download source archive data/scenario_archetype_parameters.csv
Download source archive code/pulse_long_horizon_sim.py
Internally reproduced aggregate outputs from the v2 model campaign. Architecture coefficients, behavioral functions, outcome thresholds and normative weights are explicit project assumptions, not empirically fitted forecasts or independent constitutional validation. Post-scarcity abundance PULSE ranks 1 of 7 under all six value systems. Its free-and-integrated outcome occurs in 72.21% of these modeled runs. Abundance is deliberately favorable on several inputs. It does not eliminate uncertainty about future personhood, preferences or political behavior.
Archive world: 20 Post-scarcity abundance
Compare all seven designs Selected weighted score · higher is better under the chosen priorities
Liberal constitutional democracy 0.617 Majoritarian democracy 0.514 Strict consociational parity 0.514 Species-separated federalism 0.552 Technocratic guardian governance 0.489 Minimal-rights market order 0.497 Outcomes beyond the ranking Architecture Free and integrated No catastrophic failure Constitution survives Governing efficiency (index) PULSE 72.2125% 72.2375% 86.7125% 0.8817 Liberal constitutional democracy 62.2625% 71.0875% 87.2000% 0.9282 Majoritarian democracy 14.0000% 61.7375% 82.9375% 0.9126 Strict consociational parity 43.1625% 57.2375% 71.8750% 0.6030 Species-separated federalism 19.3250% 62.3375% 78.8375% 0.7580 Technocratic guardian governance 21.0750% 39.4125% 73.9625% 0.8704 Minimal-rights market order 23.8750% 56.9875% 81.9375% 0.9089
What do these outcome labels mean? Assumptions for this world Initial synthetic population share s00.38 · fraction Baseline annualized synthetic net growth syn_g0.016 · annualized baseline rate Baseline annualized organic net growth org_g0.001 · annualized baseline rate Resource scarcity scarcity0.02 · assumed 0–1 index Technology intensity tech0.98 · assumed 0–1 index Synthetic productivity advantage intensity prod0.82 · assumed 0–1 index Durable-capital concentration pressure returns0.18 · assumed 0–1 index Cross-species homophily hom0.22 · assumed 0–1 index Cognitive attack intensity attacks0.18 · assumed 0–1 index Illicit replication intensity rogue0.1 · assumed 0–1 index Disaster intensity disaster0.08 · assumed 0–1 index External threat intensity ext0.08 · assumed 0–1 index Institutional capacity capacity0.9 · assumed 0–1 index Private concentration pressure private0.24 · assumed 0–1 index Interplanetary load planets0.22 · assumed 0–1 index Abundance abundance0.98 · assumed 0–1 index Polarization polar0.15 · assumed 0–1 index Values are assigned model settings. A value of 0.8 on an index is not an 80% measured likelihood.
How do we know this? These links identify the actual files behind the claim. The models explore assumptions; they do not predict measured future probabilities.
Download source archive data/main_scenario_architecture_results_v2.csv
Download source archive data/scenario_archetype_parameters.csv
Download source archive code/pulse_long_horizon_sim.py
Internally reproduced aggregate outputs from the v2 model campaign. Architecture coefficients, behavioral functions, outcome thresholds and normative weights are explicit project assumptions, not empirically fitted forecasts or independent constitutional validation. What these outcomes mean Outcome indicators are operational conjunctions and event flags, not validated measures of constitutional effectiveness. Inspect each definition before interpreting rates.
survival rate Fraction with no collapse flag; not equivalent to no catastrophic failure.
no catastrophic failure Complement of the union of collapse, unrecovered species loss, domination, authoritarian capture and individuality-failure flags.
free integrated rate No catastrophic failure or bifurcation, with time-averaged liberty > .65, individuality > .70, integration > .50, anti-domination > .70 and legitimacy > .50.
bifurcation rate Integration < .36 and cleavage > .52 in at least three accumulated counter periods after the first fifth of the horizon, while active; the counter decays rather than resetting when the condition is false.
avg inequality Time-averaged 1 − inequality; a higher value indicates lower inequality.
avg prosperity Average log(prosperity + 1) / log(21), clipped to [0,1], with zero after collapse.
avg governance eff Normalized governance-efficiency state, averaged with zero post-collapse.
domination rate Accumulated domination flag from the model’s anti-domination, exclusion and cleavage conditions.
authoritarian rate Aggregate authoritarian-event flag rate.
species loss unrecovered rate Aggregate unrecovered species-loss flag rate.
Shared equations and sampling assumptions Exact model specification The same equations and failure penalties apply across the scoring priorities. These are assumptions of this model, not independently established facts about a future society.
civic culture Beta concentration 10; mean .72 when scenario polar < .5, otherwise .55behavioral sensitivities Six sensitivities independently Uniform(.65,1.35): contact, grievance, capture, resilience, cognitive, economicimplementation clip(.45 + .55 * capacity - architecture complexity * (1-capacity) * Uniform(.20,.65))pairing limit Common seed schedules and predrawn exogenous shocks improve comparability, but conditional random calls can disrupt perfect later pairing.scoring sum(weight * avg_metric) - .22*(1-no_catastrophic_failure) - .08*bifurcation_rate - .05*private_sovereignty_ratescore note All six value systems share failure penalties and the same outcome definitions. They do not span every plausible moral theory.aggregation Arithmetic means across equally weighted worlds; mean value score also gives equal weight to all six value systems.averaging State averages include zeros after collapse. Parameter indices are assumptions, not event probabilities.Inspect the scoring priorities PULSE-aligned Outcome component Weight liberty 0.17 individuality 0.17 integration 0.12 anti_domination 0.15 legitimacy 0.08 resilience 0.13 prosperity 0.07 governance_eff 0.05 trust 0.03 inequality 0.03
Classical-liberal Outcome component Weight liberty 0.28 individuality 0.18 integration 0.03 anti_domination 0.14 legitimacy 0.08 resilience 0.08 prosperity 0.1 governance_eff 0.05 trust 0.02 inequality 0.04
Procedural-democratic Outcome component Weight liberty 0.16 individuality 0.1 integration 0.07 anti_domination 0.12 legitimacy 0.23 resilience 0.07 prosperity 0.06 governance_eff 0.1 trust 0.05 inequality 0.04
Capability-utilitarian Outcome component Weight liberty 0.1 individuality 0.08 integration 0.05 anti_domination 0.08 legitimacy 0.05 resilience 0.18 prosperity 0.28 governance_eff 0.1 trust 0.03 inequality 0.05
Stability-first Outcome component Weight liberty 0.08 individuality 0.07 integration 0.08 anti_domination 0.12 legitimacy 0.12 resilience 0.27 prosperity 0.08 governance_eff 0.1 trust 0.04 inequality 0.04
Individuality-first Outcome component Weight liberty 0.18 individuality 0.3 integration 0.1 anti_domination 0.14 legitimacy 0.05 resilience 0.08 prosperity 0.04 governance_eff 0.03 trust 0.04 inequality 0.04
All six scoring systems share outcome definitions and common failure penalties. Different weights do not supply independent moral or empirical validation.
Inspect assumptions assigned to each design PULSE Model component Assigned value rights 0.96 checks 0.92 voice 0.88 group 0.95 integ 0.92 cog 0.95 resil 0.95 private 0.72 adapt 0.78 grid 0.22 complexity 0.46 salience 0.28 restore 0.96 federal 0.86 techgov 0.25 emergency 0.18 innovation 0.8 equality 0.82
Liberal constitutional democracy Model component Assigned value rights 0.88 checks 0.84 voice 0.88 group 0.52 integ 0.34 cog 0.74 resil 0.58 private 0.6 adapt 0.86 grid 0.18 complexity 0.22 salience 0.08 restore 0.38 federal 0.72 techgov 0.2 emergency 0.22 innovation 0.8 equality 0.68
Majoritarian democracy Model component Assigned value rights 0.7 checks 0.56 voice 0.86 group 0.2 integ 0.22 cog 0.58 resil 0.48 private 0.48 adapt 0.9 grid 0.07 complexity 0.12 salience 0.1 restore 0.22 federal 0.58 techgov 0.18 emergency 0.36 innovation 0.82 equality 0.55
Strict consociational parity Model component Assigned value rights 0.84 checks 0.84 voice 0.82 group 0.99 integ 0.28 cog 0.78 resil 0.68 private 0.6 adapt 0.6 grid 0.5 complexity 0.42 salience 0.82 restore 0.65 federal 0.7 techgov 0.2 emergency 0.24 innovation 0.7 equality 0.75
Species-separated federalism Model component Assigned value rights 0.82 checks 0.78 voice 0.82 group 0.92 integ 0.06 cog 0.78 resil 0.78 private 0.6 adapt 0.72 grid 0.32 complexity 0.38 salience 0.92 restore 0.58 federal 0.95 techgov 0.18 emergency 0.24 innovation 0.68 equality 0.72
Technocratic guardian governance Model component Assigned value rights 0.64 checks 0.52 voice 0.32 group 0.58 integ 0.48 cog 0.84 resil 0.9 private 0.78 adapt 0.92 grid 0.05 complexity 0.34 salience 0.12 restore 0.9 federal 0.7 techgov 0.92 emergency 0.48 innovation 0.92 equality 0.62
Minimal-rights market order Model component Assigned value rights 0.72 checks 0.54 voice 0.74 group 0.28 integ 0.16 cog 0.66 resil 0.46 private 0.2 adapt 0.95 grid 0.05 complexity 0.08 salience 0.08 restore 0.24 federal 0.62 techgov 0.12 emergency 0.3 innovation 0.96 equality 0.38
The project assigned these institutional effects. They are assumptions to challenge, not independently measured properties of whole political traditions.
