PROJECT ENDURING PULSE

What the big simulation can tell us

The big simulation doesn't prove PULSE is better. We had to assign numbers to things like how well institutions work, trust, integration and the ability to recover. Those numbers are assumptions. The model asks what happens over time if the mechanisms work roughly that way; it isn't evidence that they actually will.

When we weakened selected PULSE institutional effects toward the model's neutral setting, its overall lead disappeared. That helps identify which assumptions matter most. It doesn't tell us how much better a real PULSE society would be.

Model evidence, open to challenge

Testing: questions before scores

The tests are meant to help find where PULSE goes wrong. Passing them doesn't prove the whole framework works.

Four different kinds of support

Targeted mechanism tests

These ask a narrow question about a rule: can an election be manipulated by adding similar candidates, can a voting threshold block harmful proposals, or can recovery guardians fail together? Conclusions apply only within the stated test assumptions.

Conditional civilization models

The long-term model starts by assigning each design assumed effects on rights, cooperation and other outcomes. Then it asks what follows if those assumptions hold. It can't independently show that the proposed institutions would actually produce those effects.

What we can learn from existing societies and systems

Studies of human societies and existing infrastructure can inform a question. They cannot tell us exactly how a future human–synthetic society would behave.

Normative constitutional doctrine

Equal personhood and the right to direct your own life are moral choices built into the Constitution. A simulation can't prove those values are right.

Where PULSE lost

Weak institutions

Open the complete negative-results page →

In world 19, PULSE ranks fourth under all six scoring systems. A simpler liberal design wins. PULSE reaches the model’s free-and-integrated outcome in only 2.225% of runs.

Inspect weak institutions →

A winning rank can still hide failure

In world 11, deep social separation leaves PULSE’s free-and-integrated outcome at only 0.9125%, even though it ranks first under every scoring system. All designs struggle; ranking is not success.

Inspect deep social separation →

Assumed benefits matter

The average of six PULSE scores falls below the fixed liberal comparison when the benefit multiplier moves from 0.85 to 0.80. This is a sampled sensitivity interval, not a measured performance requirement.

Inspect the sensitivity methods →

Choose a question

Can one species politically dominate the other?

Conditional long-horizon civilization model

Model

The 300-year starting comparison varies each population’s initial share and growth across seven government designs.

Result

The model flags domination of one population by the other in an average 0.019375% of PULSE runs, compared with 2.48% for the majority-rule design. This is one narrow outcome. PULSE still suffers failures involving authoritarian control and can perform poorly overall.

Design response

The current framework combines ordinary representation with rules requiring support from both populations. This combined test does not show what caused each individual provision to be adopted.

Current rule

The House represents people and geography without species-owned seats. The Senate requires different levels of support for different matters. Certain candidates also need a separate signal of acceptance from the other population.

Limits

The strengths assigned to group protections and checks on power substantially determine this result. The model does not simulate every election, court decision or real political alliance. Zero in a scenario means zero recorded model events, not zero real risk.

Compared alternatives: PULSE, A liberal democracy with constitutional rights, Government by population majority, Strict equal power for the two populations, Separate self-government for each population, Government led by technical guardians, A market order with fewer public safeguards

How do we know this?

These links identify the actual files behind the claim. The models explore assumptions; they do not predict measured future probabilities.

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File inside this ZIP: data/main_scenario_architecture_results_v2.csv

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File inside this ZIP: data/architecture_parameterization.csv

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File inside this ZIP: code/pulse_long_horizon_sim.py

Can a rogue cohort capture synthetic politics?

Targeted mechanism tests

Model

Earlier tests combining several pressures compare limits on linked groups with one limit covering everyone created unlawfully. The long-term model directly caps that share for PULSE.

Result

In the historical test, the rule limiting each linked set separately let the combined share exceed 50% in 40.082% of runs. The rule limiting everyone together to 40% and the rule reducing their combined share to one-third recorded no such breach. These are historical alternatives, not the current 30% rule.

Design response

The current Charter applies one limit across all such persons. Calling them separate groups does not let their combined share grow beyond it.

Current rule

Article IX §7 limits active synthetic voters whose own first creation was unlawful to 30% of the active synthetic electorate, regardless of who created them or whether their groups are linked. Their innocence, fair legal process and path to eventual safe integration remain protected.

Limits

Enforcement is assumed. The long-term code applies its 30% cap directly to PULSE; it cannot independently show whether institutions can identify and enforce the rules for every unlawful creation. Historical 40% and one-third thresholds must never be labeled current law.

Compared alternatives: A separate limit for each linked group, One global limit on persons created unlawfully, Reducing the combined share to one-third

How do we know this?

These links identify the actual files behind the claim. The models explore assumptions; they do not predict measured future probabilities.

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File inside this ZIP: Prior_Simulation_Archive/All_Models_and_Simulations/02_Compound_RedTeam_v0.9.1/rogue_summary.csv

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File inside this ZIP: data/main_scenario_architecture_results_v2.csv

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File inside this ZIP: code/pulse_long_horizon_sim.py

Does protected voting create gridlock?

Targeted mechanism tests

Model

The Senate tests compare requiring a majority in each population, the 55/40 rule, and a Senate whose votes follow population size.

Result

At equal population shares, the 55/40 rule passed 30.1464% of proposals about how benefits and burdens are shared, versus 14.3164% when a majority in each population was required. Both recorded 0% passage of proposals the model labels predatory—designed to exploit the other group. Population-based voting passed 24.6118% of those predatory proposals.

Design response

The current framework requires different levels of support for ordinary laws and specially protected matters.

Current rule

Ordinary laws need 55% of the full Senate and 40% of each delegation; protected matters require 83% overall and 67% of each delegation.

Limits

The proposal categories and patterns of support are constructed. A zero passage rate for predatory proposals does not prove that real opponents cannot hide exploitation or trade votes. Stronger safeguards can still block desirable law.

Compared alternatives: Equal delegations; majority required in each, 55% overall and 40% in each delegation, Senate votes follow population size

How do we know this?

These links identify the actual files behind the claim. The models explore assumptions; they do not predict measured future probabilities.

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File inside this ZIP: Prior_Simulation_Archive/All_Models_and_Simulations/02_Compound_RedTeam_v0.9.1/senate_summary.csv

Can emergency powers be abused?

Targeted mechanism tests

Model

Earlier emergency tests make investigators’ errors more or less shared. They compare restoring earlier clean states in stages, dividing authorization keys, and isolating affected systems without restoration.

Result

At the tested shared-error setting of 0.30, real attacks left uncontained account for 1.4368% of all cases with staged restoration, 2.1188% with divided authorization keys and 3.9168% with isolation alone. All three recorded zero wrongful destructive actions in this test. These percentages use all cases as the denominator, not attacks alone.

Design response

The current Charter separates reversible containment, restoration of affected Council members, and restoring larger numbers of persons to earlier clean states. It requires independent technical investigation and court review. A historical summary test does not validate this exact sequence.

Current rule

Emergency action must be temporary, necessary, proportionate to the danger and open to review. Political disagreement is not evidence that a mind has been compromised. Repair is preferred. Synthetic Council leadership free of the compromise must be restored before broader decisions to force people back to earlier clean mental states.

Limits

The zero count of wrongful actions does not rule out abuse. The model assumes its evidence process works as specified. It does not reproduce malicious institutions, hidden coercion or the full current Charter.

Compared alternatives: Restore earlier clean states in stages, Divide authorization keys, Isolate affected systems without restoration

How do we know this?

These links identify the actual files behind the claim. The models explore assumptions; they do not predict measured future probabilities.

Download source archive
File inside this ZIP: Prior_Simulation_Archive/All_Models_and_Simulations/02_Compound_RedTeam_v0.9.1/emergency_summary.csv

Does Functional Integration actually matter?

Conditional long-horizon civilization model

Model

The v2 test weakens each of five main sets of rules in turn and compares the result with full PULSE.

Result

Weakening Functional Integration—the rules for useful cooperation and shared competence—reduces the mean free-and-integrated outcome from 57.0208% to 16.7083%. Lasting splits into divided populations rise from 2.8667% to 6.4208%. These are means over the 20 archived worlds.

Design response

The framework makes useful cooperation and the ability to keep shared systems running central. The model supports investigating how this could work; it does not authorize forced private relationships.

Current rule

The state connects systems, knowledge, capability and opportunity. It may not force friendships, marriages, neighborhoods or careers, or assign permanent roles to a species.

Limits

This test changes both the strength of cooperation and how influential group identity is. It cannot separate gains in capability, backup competence and trust. The v1.2 model does not test the exact v1.2.1 prohibition on forced private relationships. Human contact research offers an analogy; it does not measure future effects among synthetic persons.

Compared alternatives: Full PULSE, PULSE with its cooperation rules weakened

How do we know this?

These links identify the actual files behind the claim. The models explore assumptions; they do not predict measured future probabilities.

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File inside this ZIP: data/pulse_doctrine_ablation_v2.csv

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File inside this ZIP: code/pulse_long_horizon_sim.py

What happens if the populations hate each other?

Conditional long-horizon civilization model

Model

The test varies how strongly people prefer contact within their own population. The starting comparisons also include a world with deep separation and political division.

Result

With deep separation, a good rank can hide failure of the actual goal. Check how often the free-and-integrated outcome occurs and how often the populations split, as well as who ranks first. Starting world 11 is a prominent adverse case.

Design response

These results alone establish no constitutional change. They challenge whether voluntary cooperation can be strong enough under hostile conditions.

Current rule

The rules for useful cooperation must preserve choice in private relationships and equal standing. Constitutional protections cannot make people like one another.

Limits

Preference for similar contacts is not a direct measure of hatred; the technical term is homophily. Starting world 11 also raises political division. The test cannot establish the actual psychology of future synthetic persons.

Compared alternatives: PULSE, A liberal democracy with constitutional rights, Strict equal power for the two populations, Separate self-government for each population

How do we know this?

These links identify the actual files behind the claim. The models explore assumptions; they do not predict measured future probabilities.

Download source archive
File inside this ZIP: data/homophily_integration_sweep.csv

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File inside this ZIP: data/main_scenario_architecture_results_v2.csv

What happens if institutions are weak?

Conditional long-horizon civilization model

Model

The starting world with weak institutions and a separate test of institutional capability compare full PULSE with a simpler liberal design.

Result

PULSE ranks fourth under all six scoring systems in starting world 19. Liberal constitutional democracy ranks first. In the separate test of institutional capability, the lead changes between the sampled settings of 0.55 and 0.60 on the average score across all six systems.

Design response

PULSE-Lite is an idea for further testing. It is not an adopted amendment or a ready replacement constitution.

Current rule

The framework retains its current protections. It specifies the founding transition and local self-government, but the model gives no general permission to waive rights when institutions struggle to function.

Limits

Institutional capability is an assigned score on a common scale. The point where the ranking changes is not a score for a real country, a universal threshold or a precise measured estimate.

Compared alternatives: PULSE, A liberal democracy with constitutional rights

How do we know this?

These links identify the actual files behind the claim. The models explore assumptions; they do not predict measured future probabilities.

Download source archive
File inside this ZIP: data/main_scenario_architecture_results_v2.csv

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File inside this ZIP: data/institutional_capacity_breakpoint.csv

How much does PULSE depend on favorable assumptions?

Conditional long-horizon civilization model

Model

The v2 skeptic test reduces or increases selected advantages assigned to PULSE relative to a common starting setting of 0.5. Its modeled costs remain.

Result

Compare the mean scores as PULSE’s assigned benefits change with the unchanged liberal comparison. The reported loss of advantage around a 15–20% discount is a rough warning about dependence on assumptions, not a measured real-world margin. Here the percentage describes moving selected institutional-effect coefficients toward the model’s neutral setting, not reducing all assumptions. It is not a measured advantage, safety margin or empirical confidence interval.

Design response

These results call for independent tests of the proposed benefits and skeptical review of the chosen numbers. They do not themselves amend the Charter.

Current rule

The five main doctrines describe the intended system. How the research is done and how the rules would work in practice remain open to challenge.

Limits

Reducing the multiplier does not reduce every real-world institutional effect by that percentage. It changes selected model settings relative to 0.5. The underlying equations stay the same, and some favorable assumptions remain.

Compared alternatives: PULSE, A liberal democracy with constitutional rights

How do we know this?

These links identify the actual files behind the claim. The models explore assumptions; they do not predict measured future probabilities.

Download source archive
File inside this ZIP: data/pulse_skeptic_sweep_v2.csv

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File inside this ZIP: data/main_scenario_architecture_results_v2.csv

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File inside this ZIP: code/pulse_long_horizon_sim.py

Does PULSE still lead under other value systems?

Conditional long-horizon civilization model

Model

All 20 starting worlds are scored under six sets of priorities. They use the same definitions of outcomes and the same score deductions for failures.

Result

PULSE ranks first in 114 of 120 comparisons between worlds and scoring systems, and fourth in the other six. All six losses occur in the world with weak institutions.

Design response

Trying different priorities checks one way a model could favor its creator’s choices. It does not show that every reasonable moral theory endorses the framework.

Current rule

Equal standing as persons and the right to retain independent agency are moral commitments. A score does not prove them correct.

Limits

All six systems deduct points for catastrophic failure, lasting population division and private control that overrides others’ independence. They reuse the same assumptions and do not cover every political philosophy.

Compared alternatives: PULSE, A liberal democracy with constitutional rights, Government by population majority, Strict equal power for the two populations, Separate self-government for each population, Government led by technical guardians, A market order with fewer public safeguards

How do we know this?

These links identify the actual files behind the claim. The models explore assumptions; they do not predict measured future probabilities.

Download source archive
File inside this ZIP: data/main_scenario_architecture_results_v2.csv

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File inside this ZIP: data/value_system_weights.csv

Download source archive
File inside this ZIP: code/pulse_long_horizon_sim.py

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File inside this ZIP: ERRATA.txt

Complete metrics, reproduction status and source corrections

Research evidence · v1.2.2

Tests, results and their limits

Designed to expose failure, not to prove a preferred future.

Detailed trial accounting belongs with its units and limitations.

Inspect trial accounting in Methods →

Evidence status

Inspect all ten reproduction checks · Download code, data, reports and runner

Explore the verified long-horizon results

PULSE simulation result · internally reproduced · assumptions remain unvalidated

Rankings by world and scoring priorities

All six losses use the same world with weak institutions. These are not 120 independent observations of real events.

114 / 120 first; 6 / 120 fourth

Avoiding catastrophic failure

The combined failure measure is approximately tied. Whether the constitution itself survives is a separate measure: 79.1% for PULSE and 81.7% for liberal democracy.

PULSE 62.7%; liberal comparator 63.1%

Freedom together with shared participation

This is an outcome the model defines. It depends on the chosen design, assigned effects and assumptions.

PULSE 56.8%; liberal comparator 28.5%

Removing the modeled cooperation mechanism

Removing this mechanism changes practical capability, continued operation and social ties together. It does not measure private social contact separately.

Approximately 57% → 17%

Reducing PULSE’s assumed special benefits

On the reproduced average across value systems, PULSE crosses the fixed liberal comparison score when its assumed benefit is multiplied by somewhere between 0.80 and 0.85. This is a sampled interval, not an exact tipping point or a separate result for every value system.

Approximately 15–20%

Extreme hostility

The Constitution does not claim that force can create goodwill between people.

All tested designs perform worse

Institutions with little ability to carry out their duties

A serious weakness of the full PULSE design that must be reported openly.

A simpler liberal government design can win

Complete baseline rank and score table · Architecture means · Methods and exact source files

Correction to the source reports

What changed after testing

AreaFailure or sensitivityCurrent response
Presidential countingAdding similar candidates could manipulate ranked-point resultsHead-to-head ranked comparisons; Schulze/Beatpath is the current method for resolving cycles
Personhood recognitionRequiring almost everyone to agree led the model to reject many genuine personsSeveral panels using the current threshold, with different theories and evidence sources
Ordinary Senate lawRisk that a delegation could permanently block ordinary lawSeparate approval rules for ordinary law and protected decisions
Illicit creationDividing unlawful creations among apparently separate groups evaded per-group limitsOne combined voter-share ceiling for all persons whose own creation was unlawful
Cognitive changeChanges building up across repeated updatesLater reauthorization or continuing review
HouseOver- and underrepresentation concentrationReview triggers for both overrepresentation and underrepresentation
ResilienceShared failures defeat duplicate sitesBackup paths that do not fail from the same cause
ParticipationCompulsory ballot return rejectedVoluntary voting, with exceptional approval rules for disrupted elections

These are project-reported design consequences, not external validation. Read considered and superseded alternatives

What remained—and what did not get solved

The project kept its five central principles and full institutional design after these tests. That is a choice made under the model’s assumptions, not proof that the design is correct. Weak institutions, extreme hostility, recognition panels making related mistakes and the economics of very long-lived persons remain serious concerns.

Read all known limitations · Challenge the model