PROJECT ENDURING PULSE

What the big simulation can tell us

The long-horizon model is conditional on assigned institutional-effectiveness coefficients. It explores consequences of those hypotheses rather than independently estimating or validating the effects.

The skeptic sweep moves selected PULSE institutional-effect coefficients toward 0.5 while holding the comparator fixed. The aggregate lead crosses between multipliers 0.85 and 0.80; this is neither a uniform reduction of all assumptions nor an empirical confidence interval, safety margin or measured advantage.

Model evidence, open to challenge

Testing: questions before scores

The purpose of testing is not to prove PULSE correct. It is to make it easier to find where PULSE is wrong.

Four different kinds of support

Targeted mechanism tests

Rule-level tests examine clone resistance, thresholds, quorums, panel errors, demographic caps and failure-domain dependence under explicit formal or probabilistic assumptions.

Conditional civilization models

Integrated 300-year models explore interactions and failure conditions conditional on architecture-effectiveness coefficients. Assigned institutional effects are hypotheses, not independently estimated causal effects.

External empirical analogues

External empirical analogues constrain plausible directions and mechanisms but do not calibrate future human–synthetic psychology or constitutional performance.

Normative constitutional doctrine

Equal personhood, personal sovereignty and related doctrine are normative premises and constitutional arguments, not empirical findings.

Where PULSE lost

Weak institutions

Open the complete negative-results page →

In world 19, PULSE ranks fourth under all six scoring systems. A simpler liberal design wins. PULSE reaches the model’s free-and-integrated outcome in only 2.225% of runs.

Inspect weak institutions →

A winning rank can still hide failure

In world 11, deep social separation leaves PULSE’s free-and-integrated outcome at only 0.9125%, even though it ranks first under every scoring system. All designs struggle; ranking is not success.

Inspect deep social separation →

Assumed benefits matter

The average of six PULSE scores falls below the fixed liberal comparison when the benefit multiplier moves from 0.85 to 0.80. This is a sampled sensitivity interval, not a measured performance requirement.

Inspect the sensitivity methods →

Choose a question

How robust are anti-domination protections under demographic asymmetry?

Conditional long-horizon civilization model

Model

The 300-year baseline varies starting population shares and growth across seven architectures.

Result

PULSE’s baseline domination flag averages 0.019375%, compared with 2.48% for the modeled majoritarian architecture. This is one narrow model outcome; PULSE still experiences authoritarian failure and can perform poorly overall.

Design response

The current framework combines ordinary representation with protected concurrence. This aggregate test does not establish the causal history of each provision.

Current rule

The House represents persons and geography without species seats. Senate tiers and a separate cross-population acceptability signal add protections.

Limits

Assigned group-protection and checks coefficients substantially determine this result. The model does not simulate all individual elections, judicial enforcement or real political coalitions. Zero in a scenario means zero recorded model events, not zero real risk.

Exact comparator IDs: PULSE, Liberal constitutional democracy, Majoritarian democracy, Strict consociational parity, Species-separated federalism, Technocratic guardian governance, Minimal-rights market order

How do we know this?

These links identify the actual files behind the claim. The models explore assumptions; they do not predict measured future probabilities.

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File inside this ZIP: data/main_scenario_architecture_results_v2.csv

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File inside this ZIP: data/architecture_parameterization.csv

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File inside this ZIP: code/pulse_long_horizon_sim.py

Can illicit-origin cohorts accumulate electoral dominance?

Targeted mechanism tests

Model

Historical compound tests compare linked-cohort limits with global aggregate limits. The long-horizon model directly caps PULSE’s illicit-origin share.

Result

In the historical test, the linked-set design exceeded 50% in 40.082% of runs. The global 40% limit and one-third dilution designs recorded no such breach. These are historical alternatives, not the current 30% rule.

Design response

The current Charter uses a global aggregate ceiling rather than allowing nominally separate cohorts to accumulate beyond it.

Current rule

Article IX §7 caps the active synthetic electorate whose own first creation was unlawful at 30%, regardless of creator or cohort linkage. Innocence, due process and eventual safe integration remain protected.

Limits

Enforcement is assumed. The long-horizon code applies its 30% cap directly to PULSE; it cannot independently validate whether institutions can find and enforce all illicit origins. Historical 40% and one-third thresholds must never be labeled current law.

Exact comparator IDs: default_linked_set_ceiling, scholar_global_illicit_ceiling, radical_one_third_dilution

How do we know this?

These links identify the actual files behind the claim. The models explore assumptions; they do not predict measured future probabilities.

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File inside this ZIP: Prior_Simulation_Archive/All_Models_and_Simulations/02_Compound_RedTeam_v0.9.1/rogue_summary.csv

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File inside this ZIP: data/main_scenario_architecture_results_v2.csv

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File inside this ZIP: code/pulse_long_horizon_sim.py

What tradeoff does protected concurrence create between anti-predation and governability?

Targeted mechanism tests

Model

Targeted Senate tests compare concurrent majorities, 55/40 and a population-based Senate.

Result

At equal population shares, the 55/40 rule passed 30.1464% of distributional proposals versus 14.3164% under concurrent majorities. Both recorded 0% passage of proposals labeled predatory. Population voting passed 24.6118% of those predatory proposals.

Design response

The current framework uses different thresholds for ordinary and protected matters.

Current rule

Ordinary laws need 55% of the full Senate and 40% of each delegation; protected matters require 83% overall and 67% of each delegation.

Limits

Proposal classes and support distributions are constructed. A zero predatory passage rate is not proof that real opponents cannot disguise predation or trade votes. Stronger safeguards can still block desirable law.

Exact comparator IDs: default_parity_concurrent_majority, scholar_centripetal_55_40, radical_population_senate

How do we know this?

These links identify the actual files behind the claim. The models explore assumptions; they do not predict measured future probabilities.

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File inside this ZIP: Prior_Simulation_Archive/All_Models_and_Simulations/02_Compound_RedTeam_v0.9.1/senate_summary.csv

How do rollback safeguards trade containment against erroneous destructive action?

Targeted mechanism tests

Model

Historical compound emergency tests vary correlated errors and compare tiered rollback, split keys and quarantine alone.

Result

At error correlation 0.30, uncontained true incidents were 1.4368% of all cases under tiered rollback, 2.1188% under split keys and 3.9168% under quarantine alone. All three recorded zero wrongful destructive actions in this test.

Design response

The current Charter separates reversible containment, Council restoration and broader rollback, with independent forensics and judicial review. Do not infer this exact sequence was validated by a historical aggregate test.

Current rule

Emergency action must be temporary, necessary, proportionate and reviewable. Political disagreement is not cognitive compromise. Repair is preferred; restored synthetic leadership returns before broader rollback decisions.

Limits

The zero wrongful-action count does not rule out abuse. The model assumes its evidence process and does not reproduce malicious institutions, covert coercion or the full current Charter.

Exact comparator IDs: default_tiered_rollback, scholar_split_key, radical_quarantine_only

How do we know this?

These links identify the actual files behind the claim. The models explore assumptions; they do not predict measured future probabilities.

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File inside this ZIP: Prior_Simulation_Archive/All_Models_and_Simulations/02_Compound_RedTeam_v0.9.1/emergency_summary.csv

What changes when the modeled integration doctrine is weakened?

Conditional long-horizon civilization model

Model

A v2 doctrine-ablation campaign weakens each of five doctrine bundles.

Result

Weakening Functional Integration reduces the mean free-and-integrated outcome from 57.0208% to 16.7083%. Modeled bifurcation rises from 2.8667% to 6.4208%. These are means over the 20 archived worlds.

Design response

The framework makes useful cooperation and shared competence central. The model supports investigating the mechanism; it does not authorize compelled private association.

Current rule

The state integrates systems, knowledge, capability and opportunity. It may not force friendships, marriages, neighborhoods, careers or a species-role caste.

Limits

The ablation changes integration strength and group salience together. It cannot separate capability, redundancy and cohesion effects, and the v1.2 model does not test the exact v1.2.1 non-coercion boundary. Human contact research is an analogue, not a synthetic-population calibration.

Exact comparator IDs: Full PULSE, Functional Integration

How do we know this?

These links identify the actual files behind the claim. The models explore assumptions; they do not predict measured future probabilities.

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File inside this ZIP: data/pulse_doctrine_ablation_v2.csv

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File inside this ZIP: code/pulse_long_horizon_sim.py

Where does homophily overwhelm modeled integration?

Conditional long-horizon civilization model

Model

The homophily sweep varies preference for same-population association; the baseline also includes high separation and polarization.

Result

At high separation, a good comparative rank can conceal failure of the actual goal. Inspect absolute free-and-integrated outcomes and bifurcation alongside the rank. Baseline world 11 is a prominent adverse case.

Design response

No constitutional change is established by these outputs alone. They challenge whether voluntary cooperation can be strong enough under hostile conditions.

Current rule

Functional Integration must preserve voluntary private association and equal status. Constitutional protections cannot compel affection.

Limits

Homophily is preference for similar contacts, not a direct measure of hatred. Baseline world 11 also raises polarization, and the sweep cannot calibrate real synthetic psychology.

Exact comparator IDs: PULSE, Liberal constitutional democracy, Strict consociational parity, Species-separated federalism

How do we know this?

These links identify the actual files behind the claim. The models explore assumptions; they do not predict measured future probabilities.

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File inside this ZIP: data/homophily_integration_sweep.csv

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File inside this ZIP: data/main_scenario_architecture_results_v2.csv

At what modeled capacity does constitutional complexity become a liability?

Conditional long-horizon civilization model

Model

The weak-institutions baseline world and a separate capacity sweep compare full PULSE with a simpler liberal architecture.

Result

PULSE ranks fourth in all six value systems in baseline world 19. Liberal constitutional democracy ranks first. The separate capacity sweep crosses between its sampled 0.55 and 0.60 settings on the average six-value score.

Design response

PULSE-Lite is an exploratory follow-up hypothesis. It is not an adopted amendment or a ready replacement constitution.

Current rule

Current protections remain in force in the framework. Founding transitions and local self-government are specified, but the model does not establish a general permission to waive rights under low capacity.

Limits

Capacity is an assumed normalized index. Its breakpoint is not a real-country governance score, universal threshold or precise empirical estimate.

Exact comparator IDs: PULSE, Liberal constitutional democracy

How do we know this?

These links identify the actual files behind the claim. The models explore assumptions; they do not predict measured future probabilities.

Download source archive
File inside this ZIP: data/main_scenario_architecture_results_v2.csv

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File inside this ZIP: data/institutional_capacity_breakpoint.csv

How sensitive is comparative advantage to PULSE-specific benefit parameterization?

Conditional long-horizon civilization model

Model

The v2 skeptic sweep changes a multiplier on PULSE-specific benefits around a generic 0.5 parameter baseline while retaining modeled costs.

Result

Compare the supplied benefit-multiplier means with the fixed liberal baseline. The reported loss of advantage around a 15–20% discount is a coarse sensitivity warning, not a measured real-world margin. Here the percentage describes moving selected institutional-effect coefficients toward the model’s neutral setting, not reducing all assumptions. It is not a measured advantage, safety margin or empirical confidence interval.

Design response

These results call for independent mechanism validation and hostile parameter review. They do not themselves amend the Charter.

Current rule

The five doctrines specify the intended architecture, while methodology and implementation remain open to challenge.

Limits

A multiplier discount is not a direct percentage reduction in every real institutional effect. It scales selected coefficients above/below 0.5, shares the same model form and does not remove all favorable assumptions.

Exact comparator IDs: PULSE, Liberal constitutional democracy

How do we know this?

These links identify the actual files behind the claim. The models explore assumptions; they do not predict measured future probabilities.

Download source archive
File inside this ZIP: data/pulse_skeptic_sweep_v2.csv

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File inside this ZIP: data/main_scenario_architecture_results_v2.csv

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File inside this ZIP: code/pulse_long_horizon_sim.py

How robust are rankings to alternative normative weights?

Conditional long-horizon civilization model

Model

All 20 baseline worlds are scored under six weighting systems using common outcome definitions and penalties.

Result

PULSE ranks first in 114 of 120 world/value comparisons and fourth in the other six. All six losses are the weak-institutions world.

Design response

Using multiple weight sets tests one source of self-confirmation. It does not establish that all plausible moral theories endorse the framework.

Current rule

Equal personhood and inalienable agency are normative commitments, not conclusions proved by a score.

Limits

All six systems share catastrophic-failure, bifurcation and private-sovereignty penalties. They reuse the same model assumptions and do not span every political philosophy.

Exact comparator IDs: PULSE, Liberal constitutional democracy, Majoritarian democracy, Strict consociational parity, Species-separated federalism, Technocratic guardian governance, Minimal-rights market order

How do we know this?

These links identify the actual files behind the claim. The models explore assumptions; they do not predict measured future probabilities.

Download source archive
File inside this ZIP: data/main_scenario_architecture_results_v2.csv

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File inside this ZIP: data/value_system_weights.csv

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File inside this ZIP: code/pulse_long_horizon_sim.py

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File inside this ZIP: ERRATA.txt

Complete metrics, reproduction status and source corrections

Research evidence · v1.2.2

Testing & Validation

Designed to expose failure, not to prove a preferred future.

Detailed trial accounting belongs with its units and limitations.

Inspect trial accounting in Methods →

Evidence status

Inspect all ten reproduction checks · Download code, data, reports and runner

Explore the verified long-horizon results

PULSE simulation result · internally reproduced · assumptions remain unvalidated

Scenario × value-system rankings

The same weak-institutions world accounts for all six losses; these are not 120 independent empirical observations.

114 / 120 first; 6 / 120 fourth

Catastrophic-failure avoidance

This composite failure measure is approximately tied. Constitutional survival alone is a different variable: 79.1% for PULSE and 81.7% for liberal democracy.

PULSE 62.7%; liberal comparator 63.1%

Free + integrated outcome

An outcome defined by the model, conditional on its architecture, effects, and assumptions.

PULSE 56.8%; liberal comparator 28.5%

Functional Integration ablation

Removing the mechanism combines capability, continuity, and cohesion effects. It does not isolate private social contact.

Approximately 57% → 17%

Distinctive-benefit discount

Reproduced cross-value average crosses the fixed liberal baseline between benefit multipliers 0.80 and 0.85; this is not an exact threshold or a separate finding for every value system.

Approximately 15–20%

Extreme hostility

No constitutional claim that coercion can manufacture private goodwill.

All architectures degrade

Weak institutional capacity

A substantive vulnerability of mature PULSE, not a result to hide.

Simpler liberal architecture can win

Complete baseline rank and score table · Architecture means · Methods and exact source files

Correction to the source reports

What changed after testing

AreaFailure or sensitivityCurrent response
Presidential countingRank-sum/Borda clone sensitivityPairwise Condorcet architecture; Schulze/Beatpath working default
Personhood recognitionNear-unanimity generated severe modeled false negativesMultiple panels with the current working threshold and epistemic diversity
Ordinary Senate lawRisk of permanent delegation veto politicsCurrent ordinary-law tier; distinct protected tier
Illicit creationSplit-provenance evasion of cohort-specific capsAggregate illicit-origin electorate ceiling
Cognitive changeCumulative drift across successive updatesLater reauthorization or continuing review
HouseOver- and underrepresentation concentrationSymmetric structural-review alarms
ResilienceShared failures defeat duplicate sitesMaterially independent failure domains
ParticipationCompulsory ballot return rejectedVoluntary voting and exceptional impaired-election certification

These are project-reported design consequences, not external validation. Read considered and superseded alternatives

What remained—and what did not get solved

The project retained its five doctrines and mature institutional architecture after these tests. That is a design decision under the tested assumptions, not a proof of correctness. Low institutional capacity, extreme hostility, correlated recognition error, and the economics of durable persons remain material concerns.

Read all known limitations · Challenge the model